Forecast of Energetic Electron Fluence
Table of contents
- Forecast of Energetic Electron Fluence (Graphic)
- Forecast of Energetic Electron Fluence (Text)
- Description
- References
Forecast of Energetic Electron Fluence (Graphic)
The plot shows forecasts (indicated by colored rectangles) of the fluence of highly energetic (relativistic) electrons with energies greater than 2 Mev at an altitude of 6.6 Earth radii in the geosynchronous orbit. The large black dots indicate observed fluence from the GOES satellite, courtesy of NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, USA. Each colored rectangle indicates the range of the forecast values, and is green below the threshold. However, when it touches or is above the threshold, it turns red, which signals adverse space weather conditions hazardous to geosynchronous satellites. When this happens, there is a high likelihood of internal charging of satellite components by energetic electrons, with possible electric discharges that could result in malfunction or even complete failure of the satellite. The fluence forecast is based on the algorithm of Lam [2002;2004], and the threshold value is from Wrenn and Smith [1996].
Forecast of Energetic Electron Fluence (Text)
Note that the fluence values greater than the threshold value of 5.0E10+07 electrons/cm2-sr-day are considered to indicate adverse space weather conditions hazardous to geosynchronous satellites.
| Date | Observed | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower limit | Upper limit | ||
| 2013-05-22 | 0.16E+08 | 0.29E+07 | 0.53E+08 |
| 2013-05-23 | 0.20E+09 | 0.44E+07 | 0.81E+08 |
| 2013-05-24 | 0.59E+08 | 0.80E+07 | 0.14E+09 |
| 2013-05-25 | 0.80E+07 | 0.14E+09 | |
| 2013-05-26 | 0.31E+08 | 0.56E+09 | |
| 2013-05-27 | 0.15E+08 | 0.28E+09 | |
Description
This forecast is a 3 day forecast of the > 2MeV electron fluence. It consists of a range of forecast values for the current day and next 2 days. The fluence forecast and the observed fluence from the GOES satellite (courtesy of the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, USA) for the previous 3 days are also listed. Fluence values greater than the threshold value of 5.0E10+07 electrons/cm2-sr-day are indicative of adverse space weather conditions hazardous to geosynchronous satellites. Under such conditions, there is a high likelihood of internal charging of satellite components by energetic electrons, with possible electric discharges that could result in malfunction or even complete failure of the satellite. The fluence forecast is based on the algorithm of Lam [2002;2004], and the threshold value is from Wrenn and Smith [1996].
References
Lam, H.-L., Prediction of relativistic electron fluence using magnetic observatory data, in Solar-Terrestrial Magnetic Activity and Space Environment (Proceedings of COSPAR Colloquium Beijing 2001), COSPAR Colloquia Series Vol. 14, 439-442, 2002.
Lam, H.-L., On the prediction of relativistic electron fluence based on its relationship with geomagnetic activity over a solar cycle, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 66, 1703-1714, 2004.
Wrenn, G. L. and R. J. K. Smith, Probability factors governing ESD effects on geosynchronous orbits, IEEE Trans. Nuc. Sci., 43, 2783-2789, 1996.